Evaluating Pseudo-R2's for binary probit models

Many applied researchers of limited dependent variable models found it disadvantageous that a widely accepted Pseudo-R² does not exist for this type of estimation. The paper provides guidance for researchers in choosing a Pseudo-R² in the binary probit case. The starting point is that R² is best understood in the ordinary least squares (OLS) case with continuous data, which is chosen as the reference situation. It is considered which Pseudo-R² is best able to mimic the OLS-R². The results are surprisingly clear: a measure suggested by McKelvey-Zavoina performs the best under our criterion. However, in the more likely case of low Pseudo-R²'s, a normalization of a measure proposed by Aldrich-Nelson which we suggest is almost as good as the McKelvey-Zavoina, and is in general easier to calculate. We also show that if the underlying R² is predicted using cubic regressions given the Pseudo-R², all measures perform much better.     

Portfolio selection by Austrian insurance companies

Zusammenfassung Ausgehend von einem modifizierten Modell vonParkin (1970) wird versucht, das Anlageverhalten der österreichischen Vertragsversicherungen ökonometrisch zu erfassen. In diesem Modell wird das gewünschte Portefeuille abhängig von den erwarteten Ertragsraten der einzelnen Aktiva gemacht. Um diesen Ansatz auf Daten anwenden zu können, sind Annahmen über den Zusammenhang von tatsächlichem und gewünschtem Portefeuille sowie über die Erwartungsbildung notwendig. In dieser Arbeit wurden der Stockanpassungsmechanismus und der marginale Anpassungsmechanismus sowie unitäre und rationale Erwartungen näher untersucht.Die Anwendung dieser Modelle auf Daten der österreichischen Versicherungswirtschaft im Zeitraum 1973 bis 1982 zeigt, daß der marginale Anpassungsmechanismus besser geeignet ist, die Enge der heimischen Finanzmärkte wiederzugeben, und daß unitäre Erwartungen rationalen vorzuziehen sind. Im Gegensatz zu Wertpapieren und Forderungen, die zueinander Substitute sind, herrscht bei den Einlagen das Transaktionsmotiv vor, sodaß für diese Position das Portfoliomodell wenig geeignet erscheint. Es ist jedoch nicht auszuschließen, daß die Ergebnisse stark von institutionellen Gegebenheiten beeinflußt worden sind.

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The author is indebted to G. Winckler for helpful discussions.     

The debt crisis and IMF policy

The discussions anticipating the annual joint meeting of the IMF and the World Bank in Berlin this autumn have again drawn the increased attention of a broader public to the debt problems of the developing countries. Alternative groups are planning to hold an anti-congress, in which especially the role of the IMF and the World Bank in this connection are to be subjected to a critical examination. The following article describe the basic points of criticism.     

SAVING AND INVESTMENT: PARADIGMS, PUZZLES, POLICIES

The 1990s have seen a renewed interest in issues of capitalaccumulation and growth. New paradigms for saving, investment,and growth have been advanced to address theoretical and empiricalpuzzles and to guide the design of better policies. This paperprovides a policy-oriented review of recent theoretical andempirical work on the determinants of saving and investmentand on their links to growth. It takes stock of new findingsas well as still unresolved questions and gives particular attentionto empirical regularities and to the policy issues relevantto developing countries.      

A second look at the Maastricht Treaty

The Maastricht Treaty aims to define the path towards a single currency in the European Community by the end of the century. The following article analyzes the strategy laid down in the Treaty in the light of recent events, highlights its internal contradictions and the obstacles it is likely to meet, and assesses its chances of success. Official of the Commission of the European Communities, currently on secondment in France. The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author.     

Productivity gaps and capacity utilization in the manufacturing sectors of five OECD-countries, 1963–1982

The purpose of this paper is to apply some novel features in the theory of productivity indexes to the measurement of productivity gaps. It advances the proposition that one reason for the persistence of productivity gaps might be that the methodology of measuring gaps does not separate shifts of the production function due to intercountry efficiency from shifts due to intercountry differences in capacity utilization.In this paper we calculate productivity gaps for four OECD countries relative to the U.S., adjusted for cyclical variations in capacity utilization for the period 1963–1982. The theoretical foundation of our measurement is based on a variable cost function approach with short-run fixity of capital. Without adjusting for differences in capacity utilization within the countries, productivity gaps are a mixture of differences in productivity and in capacity utilization.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through C. Morrison.